SWOD48
SPC AC 010857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT FRI APR 01 2011
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAIN SIMILAR IN MAINTAINING AN AMPLIFIED FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS
ON DAY 4 /MON/...AND THEN ACROSS THE ERN STATES ON DAY 5 /TUE/ AS A
MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED SYSTEM. THESE MODELS DO DIFFER IN THE TIMING
OF THIS TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF FASTER...ESPECIALLY ON DAY 5
ACCELERATING THIS TROUGH OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
...DAY 4 /MON APR 4/...
MODELS MAINTAIN LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS FROM THE
MID-LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES ON DAY 4. GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD ACROSS THIS REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH VERY STRONG EWD MIGRATING SLY LLJ. TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED AS FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT ATTENDING THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF STRONGER EML. THIS AND STRONG WIND
FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS
WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...DAY 5 /TUE APR 5/...
DESPITE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE GFS/ECMWF...A SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES AND THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON TUESDAY.
..PETERS.. 04/01/2011
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