Saturday, April 2, 2011

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020901
SWOD48
SPC AC 020900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT APR 02 2011

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DAY 4 /TUE APR 5/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 02/00Z GFS AND ECMWF...WITH MOST MREF
MEMBERS IN MORE AGREEMENT TO THE GFS TAKING THE DAY 2-3 TROUGH AXIS
TO THE ERN SEABOARD BY TUESDAY EVENING /06/00Z/. THERE IS AGREEMENT
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH SOME SEVERE ACROSS FL DURING DAY 4...AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE NWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
STRONGER FORCING PRECLUDES THE INCLUSION OF A REGIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ON DAY 4.

...DAY 5 /WED APR 6/ TO DAY 8 /SAT APR 9/...
BEYOND DAY 4...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS THE WRN U.S. DURING
DAYS 5 /WED/ AND 6 /THU/...WITH MODEL SPREAD INCREASING DURING DAYS
7 /FRI/ AND 8 /SAT/ WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH. GIVEN
THESE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND TIMING DIFFERENCES
OF IMPULSES EJECTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA IS
UNPREDICTABLE.

..PETERS.. 04/02/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: