SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102317
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-110015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX NEWD TO ERN OK/WRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 102317Z - 110015Z
A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA FROM NEAR SAN ANGELO TX NEWD INTO TULSA OK
IS BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND A POTENTIAL WW.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC/HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING AROUND 00Z...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER.
THE PRESENCE OF AN EML HAS WIDELY LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH
ADEQUATE HEATING/MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS HAS GRADUALLY BEEN ERODING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...EVIDENCED BY AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD THAT IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AN APPARENT WEAK COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. LOW
LEVEL FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL FORMATION IN
STORMS THAT CAN SUSTAIN A STRONGER UPDRAFT...WITH A RISK FOR DMGG
WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO SHOULD MORE SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BECOME APPARENT. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
COMPARISON TO AREAS FARTHER N AND LARGE T/TD SPREADS MAY LIMIT A
MORE WIDESPREAD TORNADO THREAT. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER DARK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET...WITH SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE/WEAK COLD FRONTAL
SURGE LEADING TO A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL PROGRESS EWD
WITH TIME.
..HURLBUT.. 04/10/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 36739430 34439587 31719895 30870071 31170106 32809872
35189643 36439550 36919468 36739430
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