SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142319
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-150315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL SD / WRN NEB / FAR NERN CO
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 142319Z - 150315Z
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL SD...WRN NEB...AND FAR NERN CO THIS EVENING.
COMPACT DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN/CNTRL KS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOIST ASCENT PIVOTING INTO THE NWRN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. IN THIS REGION...COLD AIR THROUGHOUT
THE TROPOSPHERE CONTINUES TO PLUNGE SWD...WITH SNOW ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN NEB AND NERN CO. WHILE THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO
ONLY SLOWLY TRACK EWD TO E-SEWD DURING INTO THIS EVENING...LATEST
RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG 850-700-MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
SHIFT N-NEWD IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGLY SUBSIDENT DRY CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPPING INTO THE NRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. IN TURN...THE HEAVIER
PRECIP WILL SHIFT N-NEWD INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SUPPORTING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR /HIGHEST NEAR ANY LIGHTNING-PRODUCING
CONVECTION/. WHILE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL INITIALLY BE
CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL NEB/SD...RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AFTER 03Z. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD...WITH SNOW LIKELY
SHIFTING EWD OUT OF NERN CO AFTER 06Z PER EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
GUIDANCE.
..COHEN.. 04/14/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40350273 41890280 42780223 43960050 43479947 41970041
40610092 40050187 40350273
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