SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162259
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-170030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC...ERN NC AND SERN VA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 150...
VALID 162259Z - 170030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 150 CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND CONTINUES FROM
COASTAL SC...ERN NC INTO SERN VA. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES
APPEARS GREATEST FROM ERN NC THROUGH SERN VA NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST OVER EXTREME ERN NC
ABOUT 1-2 HOUR BEYOND EXPIRATION TIME OF TORNADO WATCH 150. A LOCAL
EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO WW EXPIRATION FOR A PORTION
OF MOREHEAD CITY AND MAYBE WAKEFIELD CWA.
LINE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUES THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS WITH
500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM COASTAL SC...ERN NC INTO SERN VA. STORMS
ARE MOVING WITH AN EWD COMPONENT OF 30 KT WHICH SUGGEST THEY WILL
NOT CLEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS UNTIL AROUND 02-03Z. GIVEN THE DISCRETE
STORM MODE...VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH FROM 500-700
M2/S2...AND MODEST BUT SUFFICIENT SBCAPE...THREAT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS OR UNTIL ACTIVITY CLEARS THE
COAST. BACK EDGE OF SEVERE THREAT AND REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
WITH BAND OF STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NEAR BRUNSWICK NC NWD TO JUST
WEST OF WAKEFIELD VA.
..DIAL.. 04/16/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...
LAT...LON 34517661 33877794 33197925 32718000 33088001 34037902
35857801 37317723 37167619 35377556 34517661
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