Wednesday, April 20, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0496

ACUS11 KWNS 202256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202256
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-210100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX INTO MUCH OF CNTRL AR...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170...

VALID 202256Z - 210100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170
CONTINUES.

STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM AND TRAIN EWD ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...ALSO BEING REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW WITH TIME. WITH AT LEAST
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE FRONT...AND AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
TO PERSIST...WITH THE OVERALL THREAT POSSIBLY SHIFTING SWD WITH TIME
AS THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY DRIFTS S DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION.
PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER WILL FAVOR
CONTINUED LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAMAGING
WINDS.

..JEWELL.. 04/20/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 34489504 34919333 34959093 34698892 34138809 33658848
33579079 33439205 33529351 33569454 33639495 33879515
34489504

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