SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262251
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-262345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA...CNTRL/NERN NY...WRN VT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213...
VALID 262251Z - 262345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213
CONTINUES.
SEVERAL STRONG-SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL PA AND
CNTRL NY...WITH MANY DISPLAYING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING DMGG
WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
MAINTAINING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG N TO 1000-1500 J/KG S PER RUC OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS FIELDS. A WARM FRONT SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED FROM 30 N SYR TO
40 E UCA TO 30 SE GFL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH NELY STORM
MOTION RESULTING IN STORMS CROSSING THE FRONT AND QUICKLY BECOMING
ELEVATED/WEAKENING. ONE STORM THAT HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY HAS
MOVED INTO WARREN COUNTY...THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT IS
SURFACE BASED GIVEN A COOLER/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...THIS
MAY POSE A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS
AS IT MOVES ENE.
THE RISK FOR STRONG-SVR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE WATCH /EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING/...AS
LLJ/WAA STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND MAINTAINS SBCAPE. HI-RESOLUTION
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE WRF-NMM AND EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR MODELS/ INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY INITIATE OVER
SWRN PA AND CONGEAL INTO A LINE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME OR A NEW WW WILL BE
REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING.
..ROGERS.. 04/26/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
LAT...LON 39667733 39807958 40617915 41747889 43927673 43937314
39667733
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