Wednesday, April 27, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0638

ACUS11 KWNS 272251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272250
NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-272345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NY...CNTRL/ERN PA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 236...

VALID 272250Z - 272345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 236 CONTINUES.

TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERSISTS WITHIN THIN QLCS STRETCHING
FROM MONROE COUNTY NY TO BLAIR COUNTY PA AS OF 2240Z AND DISCRETE
CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE IN CNTRL PA. DESPITE LINE ORIENTATION
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS
QUITE STRONG WITH 0-1 KM SRH AOA 300 M2/S2 AND IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WITH UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS PRESENT DOWNSTREAM. IF TSTM ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED
AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN EXTENT OF THE WW...A NEW WW ISSUANCE MAY
BECOME NECESSARY IN THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME.

..GRAMS.. 04/27/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 42007513 40237526 39687567 39447668 39637812 40507852
42487801 43887754 44537659 44537576 44327521 43567494
42007513

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