SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302331
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-010000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0671
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 302331Z - 010000Z
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN AR IS BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH ISSUANCE EARLY THIS EVENING. SPC COORDINATION WITH AFFECTED
WFOS MAY BE NEEDED SOON...WITH PROBABILITY OF A WATCH ISSUANCE BY
00Z IS 80 PERCENT.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WRN TO NERN AR DURING
THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. SLY WINDS INTO THIS REGION ARE RESULTING IN
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S. THIS COUPLED WITH
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J PER KG/ DEVELOPING NEWD.
WHILE MUCH OF THIS REGION HAS BEEN CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AND
INITIAL ACTIVITY LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BECOME REALIZED
AS THE CAP BASED AROUND 700 MB IS REDUCED. THIS PROCESS MAY BE
UNDERWAY NOW...BASED ON THE INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AND IS LIKELY
SUPPORTED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING NEWD ACROSS NERN TX.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
AND AS THE CAP WEAKENS...STORMS SHOULD BECOME SURFACE BASED. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL...IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
..PETERS.. 04/30/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 34969029 34409185 34379419 35499347 36399262 36499007
35739002 34969029
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