MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0672

ACUS11 KWNS 010050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010049
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-010145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...SERN MO...AND EXTREME PARTS OF NWRN
TN...WRN KY AND SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 010049Z - 010145Z

A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF WW 258...
ESPECIALLY IF RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS
MOVING NEWD FROM WW 258 WILL PERSIST FARTHER DOWNSTREAM.
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE IS 40 PERCENT.

00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
SINCE 21Z...WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN IA SSWWD THROUGH
CENTRAL MO...ERN OK AND INTO CENTRAL TX. ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO
NERN AR AND COMBINED WITH A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE ARKLATEX
HAS SUPPORTED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR OVER WRN-NERN AR.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED SSEWD FROM NERN AR TO SRN MS
AND DELINEATED HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO ITS WEST OVER AR/LA...AND
DRIER AIR TO THE EAST.

STORMS TRACKING AND OR DEVELOPING NEWD OF WW 258 WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ATOP A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...ATTRIBUTED
TO THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH.
ACTIVITY OVER NERN AR WILL BE CLOSER TO STRONGER INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR A FEW STORMS TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION. THUS...ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THE ELEVATED ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...AS STORMS DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE
FARTHER NEWD AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY...THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

..PETERS.. 05/01/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 37088836 36178891 35899013 35899166 35749226 35809260
36499142 37399027 37618907 37588834 37088836

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