SWODY1
SPC AC 030048
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2011
VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH ERN PA TO NRN VA...AND THEN EXTENDED
WSWWD THROUGH SERN KY TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MIDDLE TN.
THE FRONT TRAILED SWWD FROM MIDDLE TN THROUGH MS TO THE FAR WRN GULF
OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO A SURFACE LOW N OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
ONE IN MIDDLE TN...A FEW SURFACE LOWS WERE ANALYZED ALONG THE ENTIRE
FRONTAL ZONE INCLUDING CENTRAL MS AND NERN PA. FAST SWLY FLOW INTO
NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE NRN EXTENT OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...THE SRN EXTENT OF THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING INTO CENTRAL/ERN KY BY 12Z TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN PLAINS/
OZARKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MAINLY W THROUGH N OF THE COLD
FRONT WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WAA EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO TN/KY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
...TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...
INSTABILITY ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FURTHER DECREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT
EWD FROM THE FRONT THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. UNTIL ABOUT 02-03Z...
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY /MAINLY ALONG THE MS PORTION OF THE FRONT/ AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. AFTER 03Z...SURFACE BASED INHIBITION SHOULD BECOME TOO
STRONG TO SUPPORT NEW ACTIVITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. THUS...GIVEN
ONGOING DIMINISHING TRENDS FOR NEW TSTM ACTIVITY...THE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO VALUES NO LONGER SUPPORTING A
SLIGHT RISK.
..PETERS.. 05/03/2011
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