SWODY1
SPC AC 141613
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS SWD TO
NERN FL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF WA/OR/ID......
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW LOWER OH VALLEY DRIFTS EWD ACROSS SRN IL/IND AS THE
OVERALL ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS SLOWLY WEAKEN. TROUGH EXTENDING SWD
FROM LOW INTO GULF STATES ROTATES NEWD TO MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES EWD FROM CURRENT LOCATION ERN KY/TN TO
SERN AL ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STRONG COLD UPPER LOW OFF OREGON COAST WILL DEVELOP ESEWD TOWARD NRN
CA TONIGHT. VERY STRONG SLY MID/UPPER FLOW PAC NW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE DAY E OF CASCADES.
...ERN CAROLINAS SWD TO NERN FL...
ONGOING STRONG SFC HEATING ERN NC WILL QUICKLY RAISE MLCAPES TO AOA
1200 J/KG WITH WEAKENING CINH. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREA
GENERALLY LESS THAN 7C/KM...STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM MID AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND S/WV TROUGH.
PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY SEEMS TO BE WIND DAMAGE AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS. HAIL SIZE
IN THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR/UNDER SEVERE
LIMITS GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR AND MOIST PROFILES.
HAVE REDUCED THE SEVERE THREAT VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY UPPER LOW
GIVEN THE WEAKENING SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MANY AREAS...THOSE REACHING/EXCEEDING
SEVERE LEVELS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED.
...ORE/WA/ID...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH/COLD LOW IS MOVING EASTWARD AND
WILL BE NEAR THE NRN CA/SRN OR COAST BY 12Z SUN. SUBSTANTIAL
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL OCCUR
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST STATES THRU TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ORE/WESTERN ID BY
MID AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS AND MLCAPE CLIMBS TO AOA 500 J/KG.
STORMS WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY NWD UNDER A STRONG SLY JET THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. STEEP LOW.MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.
..HALES/ROGERS.. 05/14/2011
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