SWODY1
SPC AC 151610
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF MD/VA
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NC...
...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
UPPER LOW OVER OH WILL MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY NEWD AND CONTINUE
WEAKENING TREND THRU TONIGHT AS A MORE VIGOROUS VORT MAX DIGS SEWD
INTO THE GULF STATES. A WEAK S/WV TROUGH NOTED IN THE W/V IMAGERY
THIS AM WV/VA ROTATES NEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON.
A MOIST SWLY FLOW PRECEDES THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS ONLY VERY
SLOWLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS. WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S FROM ERN NC NWD TO SERN PA AND
CONSIDERABLE DAY-TIME HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TEMPERED BY
GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SHEAR. HOWEVER WITH THE
ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
COUPLED WITH MLCAPES LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
IMPRESSIVE LATE SPRING COLD UPPER LOW IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE NRN CA
AND WILL LIFT NEWD THRU THE INTERIOR PAC NW AS NEXT EQUALLY COLD
UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES SRN OR COAST MON AM.
A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT THRU WRN ID...SSWWD THRU CENTRAL NV WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG SLY SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WITH MUCAPES NO GREATER THAN A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG EVEN IN THE BEST AREA OF THE CENTRAL ID
MTNS...THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD SEEM TO BE RESTRICTED TO A FEW WIND
GUSTS FROM THE HIGH BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON.
...FAR S TX...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS HAS RETURNED VICINITY AND W OF LWR RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WHILE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND ANY SURFACE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN W OF RIO GRANDE...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
CAPE AND SHEAR HAS SUPPORTED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE SEWD ON TX SIDE OF RIVER. GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NOTED ON DRT 12Z SOUNDING AND BRN SHEAR AROUND 40KT ON BRO
SOUNDING...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL IN STRONGEST UPDRAFTS THRU THE AFTERNOON.
..HALES/ROGERS.. 05/15/2011
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