Thursday, May 5, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060035
SWODY1
SPC AC 060033

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2011

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MS VALLEY...

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW IS OVERSPREADING THE
MID MS VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING. THIS REGION OF ASCENT HAS
MAINTAINED A ZONE OF CONVECTION/TSTMS AS IT TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS IL/MO INTO NRN AR WHERE MODEST LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE EXIST FOR MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 250-500 J/KG. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM SGF IS INDICATIVE OF THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT
WITH LOSS OF HEATING EVEN THIS REGION SHOULD STABILIZE SUCH THAT
UPDRAFTS WILL NOT POSE ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 05/06/2011

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