DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131203
SWODY1
SPC AC 131201

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MS/AL INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS...

...MID MS VALLEY INTO MS/AL...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KS.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MO TODAY...WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE
MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY. AREAL COVERAGE OF
MORNING CONVECTION OVER MS/TN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EASTWARD. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER AL BEFORE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR OVER GA.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND LEAD TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHEAST AR.
THESE STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
IL/KY/TN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING
STORMS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO MUCH OF MS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO
WESTERN AL.

...CAROLINAS...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF SC/NC AND SOUTHERN
VA /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/. LARGE SCALE FORCING
MECHANISMS ARE HARD TO IDENTIFY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY OVER
THIS REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR TO POSE A RISK OF ORGANIZED
STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...SOUTH FL...
STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FORECAST FOR LATER
TODAY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FL. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE
IN THIS AREA...BUT AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS DOES NOT APPEAR
TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 05/13/2011

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