SWODY1
SPC AC 291619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NORTHERN IL...NORTHERN
IND...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTWARD TO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...
...IL TO LOWER MI...
A WELL-DEVELOPED BOW ECHO HAS FORMED THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST IL.
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF IND AND LOWER MI BY
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A STRONG UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED
BOW AND RESULTING DERECHO EVENT. THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED TO
MODERATE RISK IN THIS REGION.
...NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
FARTHER EAST...SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG WESTERLIES EXTENDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NY/VT AND SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER REGION INTO
WESTERN ME. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE SEVERE MCS OVER IL WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND
MOVE INTO NY TONIGHT.
...TX/OK/KS/NEB...
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST
NEB. STRONG HEATING WEST OF THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONCENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE
THE HIGHEST THREAT OF INITIATION WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KS...AND PERHAPS OVER NORTHEAST
KS/SOUTHEAST NEB. THESE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE VERY FAR AWAY FROM THE
DRYLINE DUE TO CAPPING OVER THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THOSE STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...SD/MN/IA/WI...
A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/SD/IA. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN THIS
EVENING...AND FARTHER WEST OVER SD TONIGHT. THE STORMS THAT FORM
WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TO POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL.
..HART/GRAMS.. 05/29/2011
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