SWODY2
SPC AC 050537
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2011
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z...WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT
EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY...WITH SLY WINDS HELPING
TO PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD. TO THE W...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO
RETURN NWD INTO TX LATE.
...ERN KS/NERN OK...CNTRL MO INTO NRN AR OVERNIGHT...
MODELS INDICATE A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE COULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM SERN KS INTO SRN MO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN AND LITTLE INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS INITIALLY...BUT A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND
THETA-E AXIS WILL NOSE INTO THE MO VALLEY AND THE CAP MAY BE
BREACHED. GIVEN THAT THE ONLY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR A
POSSIBLE 5% UPGRADE.
...ERN NC...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR INSTABILITY WILL BE IN QUESTION. STILL...MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT UPPER SPEED
MAX...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF THIS SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A MORE UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
MAINLY FOR WIND COULD BE WARRANTED.
..JEWELL.. 05/05/2011
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