SWODY2
SPC AC 080546
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2011
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE
MIDWEST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BLOCKY UPPER AIR REGIME WILL BE THE RULE ON MONDAY WITH STRONG
TROUGHS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC BASIN AND ACROSS THE WRN STATES.
LATTER FEATURE WILL SEND A FORMIDABLE IMPULSE NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
ROCKIES TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW. AT THE SFC...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WRN ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. TAIL-END OF SAME FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD THROUGH
THE MIDWEST...UPPER MS VLY AND THE MO RIVER VALLEY. A DRY LINE/LEE
TROUGH WILL MIX EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
...NRN PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE CYCLONICALLY ABOUT A LEE
LOW POSITIONED OVER SWRN SD OR NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL YIELD EARLY DAY CLOUDS/CONVECTION THAT WILL
PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT FOR MONDAY
AFTN...WHICH AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN
SD. LWR-MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS BENEATH 8.5-9 DEG C PER KM H5-H7
LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... ALBEIT WITH A
STRONG CAP. BUT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LEAD WAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS...COMBINATION OF MOIST-UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGER-SCALE
SUPPORT SHOULD FOSTER HIGH-BASED STORMS /POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS/ OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN SD/ERN WY BY MID-AFTN WITH THREATS FOR
LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL AND MORE ROBUST SUPERCELL STORMS WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT ESE INTO CNTRL/SRN SD AMID
STRONGER INSTABILITY IF THE CAP CAN BE BREACHED. VERY LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN MATERIALIZE.
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ENE ACROSS NRN SD AND INTO ND/WRN MN OVERNIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
...MIDWEST...
HIGH-MODEL SPREAD WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
FOR MONDAY. CONTINUITY FROM DAY 1 SUGGESTS THAT ONE OR MORE
CLUSTERS OF NOCTURNAL TSTMS /SOME WITH HAIL/ MAY EXIST ACROSS THE IA
AREA AT 12Z MONDAY. VEERING SWLY LLJ...TIED TO A WAVE THAT WILL
MINOR OUT AS IT TRAVELS FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDWEST...WILL
PROBABLY MAINTAIN AT LEAST ELEVATED STORMS ENE TOWARD THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. CONCERN IS THAT SFC-BASED STORMS
MAY TRY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER PARTS OF ERN IA AND CNTRL IL
BEFORE RIDGING AND WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TAKE HOLD. VERY
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED STORMS WILL SPREAD TOWARD
THE OH VLY DURING THE EVENING...BEING FED FROM THE WEST WHERE
MID-TROP LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP /ISOLD LARGE HAIL/.
...SERN STATES...
COLD FRONT AND SEABREEZES WILL BE FOCI FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS MONDAY AFTN...PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF SC
SWD INTO NRN FL. DEEP NWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND REGIME CONSISTING OF
35-40 KTS OF H5 FLOW AND PRESENCE OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
..RACY.. 05/08/2011
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