SWODY2
SPC AC 100543
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PART OF CNTRL KS AND
CNTRL OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY SWD INTO
CNTRL TX...
...PLAINS...
ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTN. A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL EJECT ENE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FEATURE...MIGRATING ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX EARLY IN THE DAY. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...A LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER SWRN KS AND TRAVEL ENE
INTO CNTRL KS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO
SCNTRL KS...CNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX BY EVENING WHILE A FRONT EXISTS
ENE FROM THE LOW ACROSS SRN NEB AND INTO NWRN WI.
SLY LLVL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPE OF 2000+ EXISTING THROUGHOUT THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS. ARRIVAL OF THE LEAD SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC AS STRONG PCPN SIGNAL HAS EXISTED FOR A COUPLE DAYS FROM
CNTRL/NRN TX INTO ERN OK...SERN KS AND THE MO OZARKS. WHILE
COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...MODEST MID-LEVEL
SWLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AND BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD
TORNADOES AND DMGG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE WILL PERCOLATE NW
OF THE E TX/OK CLOUD SHIELD AND RESULT IN MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG
FROM THE TX BIG COUNTRY NWD INTO CNTRL KS. AS LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS AND COOLING ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH SPREAD
NE...TSTMS WILL INITIATE. FIRST STORMS WILL FORM NE OF THE TRIPLE
POINT/FRONT ACROSS SCNTRL NEB AND NCNTRL/NWRN KS AND THEN FARTHER
SWD INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND TX BIG COUNTRY AREA BY LATE AFTN.
INCREASING MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHERLIES IN
NEB/NRN KS RESULTING IN MESSY STORM MODES. STILL...BACKED NEAR SFC
FLOW VCNTY THE LEE LOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER S...MORE CROSS-COMPONENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL RESULT IN LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK WHERE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY.
STRONGER SUPPORT FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED STORMS WILL CONTINUE ENE
INTO ERN NEB AND IA OVERNIGHT AS SLY LLJ INTENSIFIES. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH WINDS/LARGE HAIL. FARTHER S...ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE AS LONG-LIVED AS PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT PASSES TO THE N
AND CAP INCREASES IN THE INFLOW LAYER.
..RACY.. 05/10/2011
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