SWODY2
SPC AC 151723
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS NOAM WILL MAKE ONLY A
SUBTLE EWD SHIFT THIS PERIOD...WITH TROUGHS TO REMAIN OVER BOTH THE
ERN AND WRN U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIE.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS VERY SLOW EWD PROGRESS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW LINGERS
INVOF NC THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CONVECTION IS FORECAST WITH THE
WRN FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS ERN WY/MT AND VICINITY...WITH SHOWERS AND
LOW-TOPPED STORMS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS OREGON AND VICINITY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH COOL AIR ALOFT CONTAINED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE E
COAST...THOUGH ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
...MID-ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
LIMITED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ONSHORE FLOW E AND NE OF A PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW
FORECAST INVOF NC. DESPITE MODEST WIND FIELD ALOFT AND THE GENERAL
LACK OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY..VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT DUE TO
BACKED SURFACE WINDS NE OF THE LOW MAY SUPPORT A SEMI-ORGANIZED
STORM OR TWO. THEREFORE...A VERY LIMITED SEVERE THREAT STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE.
...SERN FL...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED ACROSS FL THIS PERIOD --
EVEN NEAR PEAK HEATING. WLY FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA HOWEVER COULD
FOCUS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AN E COAST SEA
BREEZE...BENEATH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD ALOFT. WITH MID-LEVEL
WINDS NEAR 35 KT ACROSS SERN FL DURING THE AFTERNOON...A STRONGER
CELL OR TWO COULD EVOLVE...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITY ALONG THE SERN FL COAST.
..GOSS.. 05/15/2011
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