SWODY3
SPC AC 070712
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SAT MAY 07 2011
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EXIST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EVOLVING UPPER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ONLY MAKING SLOW MOVEMENT EWD ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A WRN STATES UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN WITH A LEAD WAVE TRAVELING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES TO
THE NRN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. IN BETWEEN...SIZABLE RIDGING WILL
TAKE PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
...NRN PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING UPSLOPE INTO SD/WY/NRN NEB WILL BE
MAINTAINED BENEATH VERY WARM MID-LEVEL EML ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
MODELS PORTRAY VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...EXPECT THAT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LEAD IMPULSE APPROACHES THE HIGH
PLAINS...HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER ERN WY WITH
SPORADIC LARGE HAIL. FARTHER E...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER CAP WILL
BE BREACHED ALONG THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER...BUT GIVEN
DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING AND VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE...SFC-BASED
DEVELOPMENT WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR HIGH PLAINS STORMS TO
DEVELOP/MOVE ENE THROUGH SD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN A MORE
ELEVATED FASHION DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A LARGE HAIL THREAT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT.
...UPPER MS VLY AND MIDWEST/OH VLY...
REBOUNDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE
PLACE ON MONDAY...RENDING UNCERTAINTY ON SFC-BASED STORM ACTIVITY.
NOCTURNAL ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS/POSSIBLE MCS OVER THE CORN BELT
EARLY IN PERIOD WILL LIKELY ADVANCE ENE INTO THE UPR MS VLY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE AFTN. MAINTENANCE OF A BROAD WSWLY
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL FAVOR STRONG TSTMS ALONG SRN/WRN
FRINGES OF ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AT THIS POINT...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A FAVORED AREA FOR ANY HIGHER SVR POTENTIAL
THAN 5 PERCENT PROBABILITIES.
...SERN STATES...
REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN COOL NLY FLOW EMANATING FROM N
ATLANTIC TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATE/MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE TN/MS VLY ON MONDAY. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MONDAY AFTN/EVE. SWRN FRINGE OF AT LEAST 35-40 KTS OF MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND STEEP MID-TROP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY YIELD MULTICELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
..RACY.. 05/07/2011
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