SWODY3
SPC AC 090728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2011
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY/MIDWEST...
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AS PRIMARY PORTION OF THE
WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT AS A NEGATIVE-TILT ENTITY
INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. ACCOMPANYING LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM
SE CO INTO NCNTRL KS DURING THE AFTN AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EWD INTO
CNTRL KS...WRN OK AND ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU IN TX. 60S SFC DEW POINTS
AND 7-8.5 DEG C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FROM CNTRL TX NWD TO THE NCNTRL KS/SCNTRL NEB
BORDER.
THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT SUGGEST THAT A LEAD SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE
MAY AID IN THE INITIATION OF TSTMS ACROSS NCNTRL TX INTO SERN OK
DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS IT
IS UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHAT INITIATING BOUNDARY MAY PLAY A ROLE IN
THIS INITIATION. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED AND
WAS INCLUDED IN 15% SVR PROBS SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
MEANWHILE...AS MID-LEVEL COOLING AND ASCENT TIED TO THE TROUGH
SPREADS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...COMBINATION OF HEATING AND ERODING
CAP WILL LEAD TO TSTM INITIATION NEAR TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN/CNTRL
KS SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO CNTRL TX BY MID-LATE AFTN. SUPERCELLS
WILL BE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DMGG WINDS.
STRONGER ASCENT WILL SPREAD ENE ACROSS KS/NEB AND TOWARD IA/NW MO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY SUPPORT ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF
STRONG/SVR STORMS. ADDITIONAL LONGER-LIVED TSTMS WILL LIKELY EXIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN TX WITH SIMILAR
THREATS FOR HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
...CORN BELT/UPPER MIDWEST...
A BRANCH OF THE SWLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF AN EJECTING IMPULSE OVER NWRN
ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY ALREADY BE
ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WRN
PERIPHERY OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO THRIVE ALONG EDGE OF THE
CAP ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AMPLE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE LACKING AS REGION BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING ONTARIO IMPULSE AND UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
..RACY.. 05/09/2011
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