SWODY3
SPC AC 100720
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CORN BELT/UPR MS VLY
SWD TO THE TX GULF COAST...
...UPR MS VLY TO E TX...
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY...BUT SUPPORT A REASONABLE
EVIDENCE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL DECELERATE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO PHASING WITH A RETROGRADING IMPULSE
OVER SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN ON THIS
EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY BEYOND DAY 3.
EXPECT THAT RESIDUAL 45+ KT WLY H5 FLOW WILL REMAIN ALONG BASE OF
THE PLAINS IMPULSE ACROSS N TX INTO THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE POSITIONED BENEATH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-TROP WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/COLD
FRONT IN THE OZARKS SWWD INTO E AND S TX THROUGH THE AFTN WITH
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY FROM ARKLATEX NEWD INTO
ERN MO.
MEANWHILE...A SEPARATE REGION OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPR LOW ACROSS THE LWR MO VLY FROM WRN IA/ERN
NEB SWD INTO NRN MO. HERE...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER...BUT MID-LEVELS COOLER. EXPECT MULTICELL
STORMS TO THRIVE AMID MODEST BUOYANCY WITH ISOLD MINI-SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE JUST NE OF THE LOW CENTER. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY SVR RISK...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..RACY.. 05/10/2011
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