SWOD48
SPC AC 070853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT SAT MAY 07 2011
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE EJECTION OF
THE WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY.
GUIDANCE HAS DECIDEDLY BECOME HIGHLY VARIED AND CONFIDENCE HAS
DECREASED...ALTHOUGH 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT.
THE LEAD WAVE THAT CRESTS THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE ENE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY. THIS MAY HELP SUPPORT STRONG TO
SCATTERED SVR STORMS OVER THE UPR MS VLY/ERN DAKOTAS ON DAY 4...TOO
SPARSE FOR A MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...HOT BOUNDARY
LAYER...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY
YIELD ISOLD SVR STORMS OVER SW OK INTO W TX ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE EML.
ECMWF WOULD LEND CREDENCE TO A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER-END SVR
EPISODE ON WEDNESDAY AS PRIMARY TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS. SFC LOW SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CO/KS BORDER...ALLOWING
DRYLINE TO SET UP FROM W KS INTO NW TX. COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND ASCENT/MOISTENING SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP AND
ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS CNTRL
KS...WRN/CNTRL OK AND NCNTRL/NWRN TX WITH ALL FACETS OF SVR WEATHER
POSSIBLE.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FLOW REGIME EXHIBITS PARTICULARLY LOW
PREDICTABILITY.
..RACY.. 05/07/2011
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