SWOD48
SPC AC 080830
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2011
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SRN PORTIONS OF THE WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EJECTING ENE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY /DAY 4/. 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED IN MAINTAINING STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/JET AS IT MOVES INTO
KS/OK/W TX WITH TRIPLE POINT LIKELY EVOLVING OVER SW KS WEDNESDAY
AFTN. MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND 50-60 KTS
OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FROM KS/NEB BORDER SWD INTO NRN TX. THESE
STORMS WILL THEN TRANSLATE ENE TOWARD SE NEB...ERN PARTS OF KS/OK
AND NCNTRL TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...DAY 4 APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE EVENT WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FURTHER WITH EVOLUTION OF
A POSSIBLE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CLEAR AND PRECLUDES MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
..RACY.. 05/08/2011
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