SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151738
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-151945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN VA...MD AND DE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151738Z - 151945Z
A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING FROM ERN NC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. DUE TO LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
EVENT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN CNTRL PA
THROUGH WRN VA...CNTRL NC AND ERN SC. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NJ
WWD THROUGH NRN MD WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND IN WARM SECTOR INCLUDING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES FROM ERN NC THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN VA WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS UNCAPPED AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH 800-1200 J/KG
MLCAPE. CIRCULATION AROUND UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY IS
RESULTING IN MODEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH 20-30 KT
SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. THE MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY SERVE TO LIMIT
DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY DEVELOP
NEWD...ESPECIALLY ONCE THEY BEGIN TO ORGANIZE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS OR
LINE SEGMENTS.
..DIAL.. 05/15/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...
LAT...LON 35157684 35167786 37087831 38727779 39367677 39207522
37417586 35867624 35157684
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