SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191817
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-191915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0812
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN DELMARVA/NERN MD...ERN PA...NJ...AND THE SRN
TIER OF NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 307...
VALID 191817Z - 191915Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 307
CONTINUES.
AT 18Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW TSTMS...SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN PART OF WW 307
WITH SOME OF THE NEW ACTIVITY ALSO FORMING JUST WEST OF THE WATCH.
LOCAL WFO EXTENSION OF THIS WATCH IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA
AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL PA AND TRACK NWD. STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT NRN DELMARVA/NERN MD INTO SRN NJ /JUST S
OF WW 307/ IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH LOCAL WFO EXTENSION OF THIS
WATCH POSSIBLE OVER SRN NJ.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LEAD IMPULSE TRACKING
NWD THROUGH ERN PA/NJ AT THIS TIME...WHILE A MORE PROMINENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NEWD THROUGH VA. FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ESPECIALLY ATTENDANT TO THIS LATTER FEATURE...WILL AID IN
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND WITHIN WW 307 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 50 KT SLY MIDLEVEL JET OVER DE/NJ PER
WSR-88D VWPS WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40
KT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
..PETERS.. 05/19/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39007541 39397676 40077723 41127701 41887735 41997775
42657772 42647660 42857595 42917469 43007385 42667362
41697381 40897390 40207427 39937440 39617438 39197499
39007541
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