Friday, May 20, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0826

ACUS11 KWNS 201708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201708
TXZ000-OKZ000-201815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201708Z - 201815Z

WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS /BY 18-19Z/.
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE IS 80 PERCENT.

AT 17Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A STRONG
STORM ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO THE SRN PLAINS MCS...WITH THIS STORM LOCATED IN NRN SAN
SABA/WRN MILLS COUNTIES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY...
SUPPORTING SURFACE HEATING WITHIN RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
/SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
/7.5-8.5 C PER KM/ AND ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS TEND TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS
TX...THE ERN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID AND HIGH LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTH
CENTRAL TX.

..PETERS.. 05/20/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30299951 31359957 33259790 33779690 33729545 31939563
30839596 29969678 29459782 29619918 30299951

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