SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211751
IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-211945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SERN SD...WRN IA...SWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211751Z - 211945Z
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT INITIALLY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE
MO RIVER WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S F. THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING
INDICATED STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH NEARLY 2000 J/KG MUCAPE
WHEN MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH CONTINUED
HEATING...LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL EXIST.
MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW HAS RESULTED
IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS PRODUCING OUTFLOW OVER CNTRL NEB.
RECENTLY...SURFACE BASED CU HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE. THIS MAY INSTIGATE STORM FORMATION. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE
INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE NWD RETURN OF MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR LNK SWWD TOWARD HYS.
WITH TIME...WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. WHILE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...A TORNADO THREAT
MAY DEVELOP LATER.
..JEWELL.. 05/21/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 40989436 40439491 40089573 40049662 40049743 40139779
40409778 41109708 41759694 42569713 43229772 43629759
43929648 43809522 43169419 42319388 41639400 41479400
40989436
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