SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211933
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-212100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NERN KS...FAR SERN NEB...NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 211933Z - 212100Z
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER N CNTRL
KS...AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS KS/SRN NEB WITH AN
EXPANDING CU FIELD. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CONTINUED
HEATING...THE CAP IS NEARLY GONE. DEEPER MIXING IS OCCURRING OVER
NWRN KS/SWRN NEB...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS AND HIGH BASED CU AND
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL DOWNSTREAM
WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...AND
WITH 30-40 KT MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE...STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
MOVE QUICKLY AND FORWARD PROPAGATE FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ANY
TORNADO THREAT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM W TO E AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER...HOWEVER...LONGER DURATION OF BACKED WINDS SFC TO 850 WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE MO VALLEY...AND DEPENDING ON STORM MODE...A FEW
CELLS MAY ACQUIRE ROTATION AND/OR PRODUCE A TORNADO.
..JEWELL.. 05/21/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 38949597 38909866 39019912 39479939 40109876 40519730
40559454 40249422 39739408 39159417 39049464 38949597
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