SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221553
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-KSZ000-221800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN IA...NRN MO...NWRN IL...SWRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 221553Z - 221800Z
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES ARE LIKELY BY
MIDDAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE ACROSS ERN
KS...NWRN MO AND INTO IA WHERE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXISTED AS
A RESULT OF THE UPPER VORT. MEANWHILE...A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA SEWD INTO CNTRL IL...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS S OF THIS BOUNDARY.
MORNINGS SOUNDINGS SHOWED CLASSIC LOADED GUN WITH SUBSTANTIAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH A BREAKABLE CAPPING
INVERSION. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL DEVELOP FIRST
ACROSS MN/IA/WI AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EWD. NRN EXTENT OF THREAT
AREA WILL COINCIDE WITH WARM FRONT. OTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SWD
ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO MO AND FAR ERN KS WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL CU
FIELD WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHEAR
PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE CAPABLE OF A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
..JEWELL.. 05/22/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...DMX...
EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 42938956 42448947 41758955 40959003 40179073 38999185
37979346 37929501 38019553 38329550 39859423 41649341
42949303 43529242 43819145 43789045 43328958 42938956
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