Sunday, May 22, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0853

ACUS11 KWNS 221806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221806
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-222000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NERN OK...MUCH OF SRN AND SWRN MO...NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221806Z - 222000Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED E OF THE DRYLINE WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEARLY ALL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN ERODED...THUS EXPECTED CU ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO ERUPT INTO INTENSE SUPERCELLS. EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY...AND ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS A BIT MARGINAL...IT WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY.

..JEWELL.. 05/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 36619153 36159187 36009275 36049408 36049519 36099643
36459673 36859655 37749573 38249409 38389294 38389201
37969159 37169139 36619153

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