SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231635
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-231800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND...NWRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 231635Z - 231800Z
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL INCREASE AS TSTMS
LIKELY BACKBUILD SWWD FROM CNTRL LOWER MI ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE AXIS. THE PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ISSUANCE BY 18Z IS 80 PERCENT.
RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS HAVE INCREASED WITH A SHORT-LINE
SEGMENT DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS IN CNTRL
LOWER MI. LATEST HRRR AND WRF-NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS
SUGGEST SWWD BACKBUILDING ALONG THIS AXIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W/SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND
PROFILES SAMPLED IN AREA VWP DATA /30-40 KT AT 1-2 KM AGL/ IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR CLUSTERS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.
..GRAMS.. 05/23/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...
LAT...LON 41858592 43258467 44238395 44408343 43868256 42898245
41658317 40668393 40238473 40288557 40788645 41198653
41858592
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