Monday, May 23, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0891

ACUS11 KWNS 231710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231710
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-231815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX INTO SWRN AR / NWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339...

VALID 231710Z - 231815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339
CONTINUES.

MCS ONGOING OVER N-CNTRL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT MAY DEVELOP E OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
339 WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS AND AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM
WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY.

AS OF 1655Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLUSTER OF
STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS OVER DENTON...TARRANT...DALLAS...COLLIN...
ROCKWALL...KAUFMAN AND HUNT COUNTIES MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD. WHILE
AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS HAS NOW WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING WOULD SUGGEST
THAT ONGOING STORMS ARE LIKELY STILL ELEVATED WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG. THESE DATA
INDICATE THAT AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 90
F...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND THE STORMS BECOME ROOTED
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..MEAD.. 05/23/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32989875 33359804 33689775 33799705 33769556 33579477
33499375 32839296 31869335 31549437 31789579 31359708
31429771 31819843 32249865 32989875

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