Monday, May 23, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0892

ACUS11 KWNS 231712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231712
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-231845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0892
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK...SE KS...NW AR AND SW TO CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337...

VALID 231712Z - 231845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337
CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT IN WW 337 IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AND MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. FOR THIS
REASON...WW 337 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 18Z.

AN MCS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WW 337 WITH THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WRN PART OF WW 337 ACROSS FAR NE OK...FAR SW MO
AND FAR NW AR. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG A GRADIENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO NW AR...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE WSR-88D VWP IN
NE OK SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT.
HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE LINE HAS ALREADY MATURED
AND IS OUTFLOW DOMINANT. FOR THIS REASON...THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 05/23/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 35749081 35599320 35749458 36109557 36439591 36919582
37229546 37309466 37379430 37469379 37999308 38319288
38499251 38369197 38009150 37329084 36389036 35949037
35749081

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