SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241734
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-241930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 241734Z - 241930Z
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL MARGINAL/SPORADIC NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW...WITH A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
ISSUANCE BY 20Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY COMMENCED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN VT THROUGH ERN/CNTRL NY INTO NRN PA WITHIN A BROADLY
CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
BECOME ROBUST GIVEN POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6 DEG C/KM
AT 700-500 MB SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS. DESPITE AREAS OF
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
WILL RESULT IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GIVEN MODERATE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL AND PERHAPS YIELD ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER CORES.
..GRAMS.. 05/24/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 40247430 40377586 41067697 41727672 42557602 43557418
43817228 43647120 43147080 42407089 41547153 41267212
40687347 40557409 40247430
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