SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271718
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-271845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0995
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...VT...NH...ME..MA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 271718Z - 271845Z
A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WIND DAMAGE
AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NRN EDGE OF A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. SFC DEWPOINTS IN NEW ENGLAND ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S F AND MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RUC ANALYSIS HAVE A PRONOUNCED VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER NRN PA AND
CNTRL NY. LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SFC HEATING WILL AID
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BENEATH THE AXIS OF A
WELL-DEFINED 700 MB JET. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO CREATE STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD AT 35 TO 40 KT WHICH MAY AID
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WITH STORMS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY.
..BROYLES.. 05/27/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
LAT...LON 45846952 45237121 44937262 44267341 43027357 42577308
42477221 42957122 43827065 45436864 45846952
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