SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281715
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-281845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 281715Z - 281845Z
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN THE LAST 1-2 HRS ACROSS
NRN MO INTO CNTRL IL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
AN INTENSE STORM IS NOTED OVER MONROE CO MISSOURI AS OF 17Z...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING OVER NRN MO. MEANWHILE...AN
EXISTING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS CNTRL
IL. SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
ROOTED IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER...WITH MU CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG
AVAILABLE TO ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL
SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...THOUGH
RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SEVERE HAIL THREAT. IF COVERAGE BEGINS TO INCREASE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.
..DEAN.. 05/28/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 38909227 39219414 40109421 40599253 40639104 40568985
40498895 40288823 39828768 39298759 38948772 38808899
38839139 38909227
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