Sunday, May 29, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1014

ACUS11 KWNS 291700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291659
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-291800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394...

VALID 291659Z - 291800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394
CONTINUES.

BOWING QLCS OVER N-CNTRL IL WILL LIKELY TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. A DOWNSTREAM WW
WILL BE ISSUED BY 18Z.

RECENT FORWARD PROPAGATION SPEED OF 45-50 KT WITH THE BOWING SEGMENT
MOVING ACROSS N-CNTRL IL WOULD EXTRAPOLATE TO THE ERN EDGE OF WW 394
AROUND 19Z. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE
WITH WARM FRONT /ROUGHLY FROM 20 S VPZ TO DTW/ GRADUALLY SHIFTING
NWD . MODIFIED 12Z ILX RAOB SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE RISING AOA 2000 J/KG/ ALONG WITH 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...THE PRESENCE
OF A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING STRUCTURE ALONG WITH THE WARM/MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD FAVOR BRIEF TORNADOES AS WELL.

..GRAMS.. 05/29/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 40488984 41258910 41858901 42498621 42698370 42508312
41828283 41418308 40998375 40658538 40528689 40488984

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