MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1015

ACUS11 KWNS 291702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291702
VTZ000-NYZ000-291800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291702Z - 291800Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM WRN NY
ENEWD INTO ERN NY AND VT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS STORMS INITIATE AND INTENSIFY. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S F ACROSS MUCH OF WRN
AND CNTRL NY WHERE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AS
STORMS INITIATE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ERIE...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP DUE TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE AS A WELL-DEFINED JET NEAR 700 MB MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE
ACTIVITY.

..BROYLES.. 05/29/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 43707663 43217834 42787899 42427919 42127885 42067808
42237690 42687459 43177314 44107312 43957515 43707663

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