Monday, May 30, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1030

ACUS11 KWNS 301910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301910
MIZ000-WIZ000-302045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...WRN UPPER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301910Z - 302045Z

SPORADIC REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS TSTM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY EVOLVES
NEWD AND LIKELY WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO RISING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE BY 21Z IS 20
PERCENT.

TSTM CLUSTERS WITH A HISTORY OF SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND REPORTS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/NWRN WI AS
OF 19Z. DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVING NOW RISEN INTO THE UPPER
70S TO 80S S OF A WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NEAR 60 NE MSP TO
CWA...TSTMS APPEAR TO REMAIN LARGELY ELEVATED BASED ON RAPID
INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTIONS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND APPARENT ROOTING ABOVE
A STRATOCU DECK IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NEVERTHELESS...THE
COMBINATION OF MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 12Z WRF-NMM SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY APPEARS TO REASONABLY HANDLE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AND
INDICATES IT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL SWLYS AND MODEST MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE RISES.

..GRAMS.. 05/30/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 46139148 46559106 46898946 46928801 46458740 45758769
44918922 44589106 44549219 44749230 45139219 46139148

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