MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1031

ACUS11 KWNS 301920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301919
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-302015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO/EXTREME SOUTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301919Z - 302015Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST CO/EXTREME SOUTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST
NEB. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

A STRONG/SEVERE TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CO
FRONT RANGE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF GREELEY AS OF 19Z. WITH
TIME...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THIS STORM AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE/OCCUR WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME EXTENDING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NEB. WHILE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST OR UNSTABLE...THE
ARRIVAL OF DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES/HIGHLY SHEARED REGIME MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A TORNADO. CURRENT THINKING IS THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MARGINAL/ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE A WATCH...BUT
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 05/30/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40370462 40960471 41700330 41660152 40780150 40170297
40370462

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