Friday, June 10, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 102002
SWODY1
SPC AC 102000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
OH VALLEY...

...20Z UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PRIOR FORECAST REASONING...SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS BELOW. DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL EXPECTED ACROSS A BROAD
NEAR-EFFECTIVE FRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..GUYER.. 06/10/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011/

...MO/IL/INDIANA/OH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SD THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS EWD TO WI BY LATE TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE MO/IA/IL
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ENEWD TO SRN LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. ON
THE MESOSCALE...THE SURFACE FRONT HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS ACROSS CENTRAL/SW OH...CENTRAL/NRN INDIANA...AND CENTRAL
IL. THE STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING IS ONGOING SOUTH OF THE COMPOSITE
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE WILL INCREASE TO
2000-2500 J/KG AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE REMOVED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THIS SAME
CORRIDOR WILL BE ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER /30-40 KT/
MIDLEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
MARGINAL SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN INDIANA WHERE LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE STRONGEST.

...SE KS/NRN AND WRN OK/NW TX THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
A BELT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OK NEWD INTO SE KS/WRN MO
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MIDDAY AS WAA AND THE LLJ
WEAKEN GRADUALLY. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION
WILL ALLOW SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SE KS SWWD INTO N CENTRAL
OK...WHILE CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE FROM
WRN OK INTO NW TX. A SERIES OF WEAK MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA FROM
CENTRAL NM NEWD INTO WRN KS WILL DRIFT ENEWD INVOF THE STALLED FRONT
AND COMBINE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OK/KS.

FARTHER SW...DEEP MIXING AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S WILL SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN NW TX THIS
EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL FAVOR
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH SOME HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL EARLY IN
THE DEVELOPMENT...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO
SW OK BY EARLY TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE
LLJ AND WAA.

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