SWODY2
SPC AC 071730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION SWWD INTO KS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN WY/ERN CO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A
RIDGE IN THE S CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. FAST
WSWLY/WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE -- IN
A BELT FROM THE DESERT SW ENEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
THEN EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CREST OF THE RIDGE.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WRN UPPER
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT SHIFTS
MORE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS IN THE SWRN KS/NWRN OK/TX AND OK PANHANDLES REGION WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...THE FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY E-W
ORIENTED. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO EXTEND
FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND WSWWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST
REGION...AND ON INTO THE KS VICINITY WHERE THE LEE LOW SHOULD RESIDE
AT 09/12Z.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO KS...
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WI
AND VICINITY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AS DAYTIME HEATING
OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTS IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.
STORMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO KS -- WITH A
STORM OR TWO POSSIBLY INITIATING AS FAR S AS WRN OK/NWRN TX.
SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADO
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INCREASE N OF THE SURFACE FRONT -- ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
...ERN WY/ERN CO ALONG AND E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
POST-FRONTAL ELY/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME BENEATH MID-LEVEL SWLYS
WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN WY AND INTO ERN CO. WHILE DESTABILIZATION IS
FORECAST TO BE LIMITED...AMPLE INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP -- AND SUPPORT STORM
DEVELOPMENT. STORMS INITIALLY EVOLVING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
LIKELY MOVE EWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND SHOULD POSE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALSO APPEARS
SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
...NRN NEW ENGLAND...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARD NRN NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD PROVIDE -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WARM
FRONT -- SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT -- LIKELY W OF THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THEN SHIFTING EWD INTO ME AND VICINITY AS A
SEMI-ORGANIZED SYSTEM. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LIKELY ACROSS THIS
REGION ALONG WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WLYS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ENOUGH -- ALONG WITH SOME HAIL THREAT -- TO
WARRANT SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE.
..GOSS.. 06/07/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment