Thursday, June 2, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1067

ACUS11 KWNS 021954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021954
NDZ000-MTZ000-022100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT AND WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021954Z - 022100Z

STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD ERN MT WHERE
WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS YET TO SCOUR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...TWO LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NE OF HVR TO
WEST OF MLS. GIVEN THAT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE
WITH SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG IT WOULD SEEM REASONABLE
TO EXPECT ONE OR MORE SQUALL LINES TO INTENSIFY AS CONVECTION
MATURES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE SK AND ND BORDERS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.

..DARROW.. 06/02/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 46190668 48820818 48990462 46230370 46190668

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