SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051756
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-051900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK / FAR NERN TX / SWRN-CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051756Z - 051900Z
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS
ACROSS THE KIAMICHI AND OUACHITA MTNS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE I-30
CORRIDOR IN CNTRL AR. ALTHOUGH ONLY ISOLD-WIDELY SCTD STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...THE THREAT FOR STRONG-SEVERE PULSE STORMS
CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SEEMS
TO EXIST. A WW IS POSSIBLE...IF...THE STORM COVERAGE/WIND DAMAGE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE REGION
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING OCCURRING EITHER SIDE OF A DEVELOPING CU FIELD OVER THE
KIAMICHI AND OUACHITA MTNS. THE 12Z LZK/SHV RAOBS SHOWED STEEP
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG C/KM ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER /15.5 G/KG LOWEST 100MB MEAN MIXING RATIO/. SBCAPES 3000-5000
J/KG HAVE DEVELOPED ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBJECTIVE FIELDS...AND
WITH A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILE NOW IN PLACE...THE THREAT
FOR ISOLD STRONG-SEVERE MICROBURSTS WILL BEGIN IN THE NEAR TERM AND
PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...OWING TO THE VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL
TEND TO LIMIT THIS THREAT.
..SMITH.. 06/05/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 34229523 34519520 34869479 35109361 34919216 34549179
34189174 34009192 33419437 33659484 34229523
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