MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1136

ACUS11 KWNS 081946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081946
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-082045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NY ADIRONDACKS / CHAMPLAIN VALLEY / HUDSON VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081946Z - 082045Z

FORWARD PROPAGATING QLCS IN ERN ONTARIO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ESEWD
INTO THE NY ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A SWATH OF WIND DAMAGE DUE TO SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS IS LIKELY
WITH THE LINE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN AN HOUR.

RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE QLCS WITH A WELL ORGANIZED
COLD POOL FEATURING BOWING SEGMENTS MOVING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 45 KTS
AS IT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM
ERN ONTARIO. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO ACCORDING TO A MODIFIED 12Z BUF RAOB
FOR CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LINE. KBUF VAD DATA
SHOW WSWLY FLOW OF 30-45 KTS 0.5-3.0 KM AGL UNDERNEATH PRIMARILY WLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 35-50 KT RANGE OVER ERN ONTARIO. THE
THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL SERVE TO PROMOTE QLCS
LONGEVITY/INTENSITY AS IT FORWARD PROPAGATES ESEWD INTO WRN PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE EFFICIENT DOWNWARD HIGH MOMENTUM FLOW TO THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ISOLD REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES AS WELL.

..SMITH.. 06/08/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 43527207 42587216 42057309 42237444 43017627 43667713
44287631 44937499 44597338 44027248 43527207

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.