Saturday, June 11, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1184

ACUS11 KWNS 111940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111940
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-112145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF ERN WYOMING AND SE MONTANA INTO WRN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111940Z - 112145Z

A WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

BENEATH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AND
CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING
AND MOISTENING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG... PERHAPS
LOCALLY HIGHER...MAY BE REACHED AS A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND IT APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BLACK HILLS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BY THE
21-23Z TIME FRAME. VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR A WESTERLY 40+ KT 500 MB JET
NOSING OUT OF WYOMING WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH
SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 06/11/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON 41670423 43430464 45330538 45440385 44030171 41830172
41190256 41670423

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: