SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121852
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-121945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE / ERN WY / SERN MT / WRN SD / SWRN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 121852Z - 121945Z
N-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING FROM SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE NWD
INTO SERN MT AND SWRN ND ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW--PROBABLY BY
20-21Z. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH AN ISOLD TORNADO
RISK DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER A PORTION OF
THIS REGION.
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 40
MI NNE CPR WITH A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY/DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD
IMMEDIATELY E OF THE FRONT RANGE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THAT
IS DRAPED FROM NERN WY INTO N-CNTRL SD. S OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPS
ARE STEADILY WARMING THROUGH THE 70S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S-LOWER 60S. N OF THIS BOUNDARY...ELY FLOW UNDERNEATH SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER IS SLOWLY ADVECTING RICHER MOISTURE /MID-UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS/ INTO SERN MT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH M0VING INTO WRN WY WHILE A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE
MOVING NEWD FROM SERN UT INTO WRN CO SHOULD BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
S-CNTRL AND SERN WY THE PAST HOUR WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY/DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE AIRMASS E OF THE DRYLINE IS STEADILY
DESTABILIZING AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. UNDULAR CHARACTER TO
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE SUGGESTS THIS REGION REMAINS
CAPPED...WITH DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO OCCUR FIRST ACROSS ERN
WY--WITHIN REGION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER HEATING OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL LEAD TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE/ BECOMING UNCAPPED BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AS UPDRAFTS
ENCOUNTER RICHER MOISTURE NEAR THE ERN WY BORDER. BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH INVOF
THE WARM FRONT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT DEVELOP/TRACK THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR. ELSEWHERE...LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..SMITH.. 06/12/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 41740449 44190572 45270626 46570600 47420466 47370315
46560179 42110173 41540228 41200295 41270400 41740449
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