SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132025
MSZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-132100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO / CNTRL AR / NRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...
VALID 132025Z - 132100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472
CONTINUES.
A LINGERING LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEYOND
WW 472 EXPIRATION TIME OF 21Z. EITHER A LOCAL WW EXTENSION-IN-TIME
OR A REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THE SEVERE RISK.
SURFACE/RADAR ANALYSIS PLACES A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WWD
INTO CNTRL AR AND SWRN MO RESULTANT FROM SWD MOVING STORM COMPLEX IN
NRN MS AND ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY CONVECTIVELY REINFORCING THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL INTO N-CNTRL AR. THE AIRMASS WELL REMOVED
FROM THE BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NERN AR AND THE GREATER MEMPHIS AREA
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED BY PRIOR STORMS.
HOWEVER...UPDRAFTS ARE DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE BOUNDARY ARE MAINTAINING NEAR SURFACE-BASED PARCEL
INFLOW. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN A SUPERCELL
SUPPORTIVE WIND PROFILE...LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS.
..SMITH.. 06/13/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 34109194 34999292 35949340 36879337 37169263 36909175
35909111 35009052 34649010 34318889 33908885 33929026
33999141 34109194
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